Uma das maiores qualidades que um trader pode ter, é identificar com eficiência quando o mercado está andando de lado e quando está em tendência.

Isso porque algumas estratégias ganham muito bem quando o mercado está de lado e outras estratégias perdem muito nesse caso, já outras ganham muito bem quando o mercado está em tendência e perdem muito quando o mercado começa a andar de lado, os chamados seguidores de tendência.

De forma discricionária/manual existem algumas formas de você conseguir identificar se o mercado anda de lado ou em tendência, por exemplo:

1- O uso de figuras gráficas:

Exemplo de medias moveis se cruzando mostrando o mercado de lado

 2- Médias móveis:

Médias móveis muito distantes demonstram que o mercado está em tendência, assim como médias móveis se cruzando o tempo todo demonstram que o mercado está lateral.

Exemplo de medias moveis se cruzando mostrando o mercado de lado
Exemplo de medias afastadas mostrando o mercado em tendência

3- Análise discricionária do gráfico por traders experientes também possibilita identificar se o mercado está andando de lado ou se está em tendência.

a) Rompimento da LTA que gera tendência de baixa

Formas Objetivas

1- Modelo de Dow

Agora vou te ensinar duas formas objetivas que você pode utilizar em suas estratégias e em seus testes para você identificar se o mercado está andando de lado ou em tendência.

A primeira delas vem do pai da análise técnica, Charles Dow e consiste em você utilizar os rompimentos dos pivôs para identificar quando o mercado pega a tendência.

Mercado está de lado ou está em tendência
Tendência de alta por Dow: Topos e fundos ascendentes.
Exemplo de topos e fundos ascendentes


Tendência de baixa por Dow: Topos e fundos descendentes. 
Exemplo de topos e fundos descendentes

Tendência Lateral: Topos e fundos sem direção.  
Exemplo de mercado sem direção por Dow
Charles Dow
Charles Dow

A técnica de Charles Dow é muito boa para identificar principalmente se o mercado está em tendência de alta ou baixa, mas quando o mercado fica lateral ela nos ajuda identificar principalmente momentos que o mercado fica bastante randômico, demorando um pouco para mostrar quando o mercado entra de lado realmente.

Tendo em vista que cada estratégia tem seu timing e que temos que adaptar os momentos de mercado ao nosso setup para saber se estamos de lado ou não, acaba sendo necessário encontrar uma forma de identificar a lateralidade do mercado de forma dinâmica.

2- Como identificar se o mercado está de lado ou está em tendência com o BirdBox

Por isso acabei desenvolvendo um outro indicador, que tem a capacidade de identificar com grande precisão quando o mercado está andando de lado e quando o mercado pega tendência. Este é a segunda forma objetiva.

O nome desse indicador se chama Birdbox, é de minha autoria e está disponível tanto no robô Titan como no Robot Hood.

Basicamente, ele calcula a volatilidade junto com a amplitude das máximas e mínimas dos preços e assim consegue nos dizer se uma determinada formação de preço do mercado está andando de lado ou está em tendência.

Um detalhe interessante desse indicador, é que você pode tanto escolher por buscar por formações de lado muito curtas (como são pequenas estruturas de lado) ou por grandes estruturas (grandes figuras gráficas)

Exemplo de uma micro figura de lado  (Nesse caso o indicador fica azul toda vez que encontra uma micro congestão) Calibragem BIRDBOX: Amplitude últimas 10 barras < ATR
Mercado está de lado ou está em tendência
Exemplo de uma grande figura gráfica (Nesse caso o indicador fica azul toda vez que encontra uma congestão maior) Calibragem BIRDBOX: Amplitude últimas 40 barras < 3 x ATR

No caso da tendência, também podemos selecionar somente um movimento ou perna direcional ou uma grande tendência como filtro..

Exemplo de uma perna de tendência (Nesse caso o indicador fica azul toda vez que encontra uma perna de forte tendência) Calibragem BIRDBOX: Amplitude últimas 10 barras > 4 x ATR
Exemplo de uma grande tendência (Nesse caso o indicador fica azul toda vez que encontra uma tendência mais forte dos preços) Calibragem BIRDBOX: Amplitude últimas 40 barras > 10 x ATR

Os setups osciladores trabalham com a lógica contraria dos seguidores de tendência nesse quesito.

Por isso esse tipo de indicador pode trabalhar como filtro, ou como fonte de identificar exatamente os pontos fortes e fracos do seu setup.

Exemplos de setups:

Exemplo de indicador como filtro de setup Oscilador:

Mercado está de lado ou está em tendência
Exemplo de setup oscilador usando Birdbox como filtro (Esperamos o mercado andar de lado, sinalizado pelo filtro do birbox e operamos padrões de candle de reversão neste cenário) Calibragem BIRDBOX: Amplitude últimas 40 barras < 3 x ATR + Gatilho Candlestick
Exemplo de indicador como filtro de setup seguidor de tendência: Exemplo de Power Breakout (Nesse caso o indicador seleciona o exato momento do rompimento da micro congestão junto com a indicação de um movimento direcional, gerando um padrão conhecido como Power Breakout) Calibragem BIRDBOX microfigura e tendência: Amplitude últimas 10 barras < ATR && Amplitude últimas 30 barras > 5 x ATR
Mercado está de lado ou está em tendência

E aí pessoal, um grande abraço!

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